OnDecember30,2020,theleadersofChinaandtheEUjointlyannouncedthecompletionoftheEU-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment,whichisaframeworkagreementdesignedtoreplacetheexistingbilateralinvestmenttreatiesbetweenChinaandEUmemberstatesandbuildunityChina-EUbilateralinvestmentsystem.

　　Thisnegotiationhasgonethrough35roundsofnegotiationsandlastedformorethan7years.Thenegotiationwasoncestalledandacceleratedinthepastoneandahalfyears.Thenegotiationwasfinallycompletedattheendof2020,whichisalsoaftertheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipAgreement(RCEP).,Chinahascompletedanothermajoropening-upmeasure,whichisanothersignificantvictoryofmultilateralisminthecourseofyearsofanti-globalization.

　　So,willthecompletionofthe"China-EUInvestmentAgreement"negotiationshaveanimpactonthestainlesssteelindustry?

　　1.IftheChina-EUInvestmentAgreementisreached,willtheEUstillhavetariffbarrierstoChina?

　　Inrecentyears,duetotheEU'scontinuedanti-dumpingofstainlesssteelexportsfrommainlandChina,theEUcurrentlyimposesataxrateofmorethan20%onstainlesssteelfrommainlandChina.Then,iftheChina-EUInvestmentAgreementisreached,willtheEUstillhavetariffbarriersagainstChina?

　　ThefirstthingtobeclearisthattheChina-EUInvestmentAgreementdoesnotinvolvetariffissues.Secondly,itisassumedthatthe"China-EuropeInvestmentAgreement"hascertainbenefitsforstainlesssteelexports,mainlyrelatedtostainlesssteelproducts,suchashouseholdappliances.However,afterthepreliminarynegotiationsarecompleted,theagreementneedstobefurthertransformedintolegalprovisions,whichcanonlycomeintoforceafterapprovalbytheEuropeanParliament.Theprocessisexpectedtostartinthesecondhalfof2021.

　　2.FromtheperspectiveofEuropeanopenareas,whatimpactdoesthe"China-EUInvestmentAgreement"haveonChinesestainlesssteelcompaniesgoingglobal?

　　Accordingtorelevantinformation,theChina-EUInvestmentAgreementwilllockintheexistingChineseinvestmentmarketaccessrightsinEurope,whileensuringtheopeningofsensitiveareassuchasenergy,agriculture,fishery,audio-visual,andpublicservicesinEurope.Inaddition,accordingtothe"GeneralAgreementonTradeinServices"(GATS),theEUwillopenuptheserviceindustrytoalargeextent.

　　FromChina'sstandpoint,theEuropeanopenfieldprovidesChineseinvestorswithgreateropportunitiestoentertheEUenergywholesaleandretailmarket,renewableenergymarketandotherfields,andpromotethedevelopmentofChina'snewenergy,automobileandotherrelatedindustries.ForChineseinvestors,theagreementalsomeansthattherearemorepotentialinvestmentopportunitiesintheEU,includingChina'scompetitiveconstructionindustry,telecommunicationsindustry,etc.,whichmaystimulatedomesticdemandforstainlesssteel.

　　However,fromtheperspectiveofstainlesssteelcompanies,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingoutandestablishingplantsintheEUisslim.DuetotherelativelylargeaccumulationofscrapsteelinEurope,Chinesestainlesssteelmillsmayenjoysomeadvantagesinthecostofstainlesssteelsmeltingwhentheygooutandinvestinconstruction.However,allstainlesssteelmillsinEuropecurrentlyuseelectricfurnacesforproduction.IfyougotoEuropetobuildaplant,theoverallcostistoohigh.Secondly,fromademandperspective,Europeanstainlesssteelproductionhasbeendecliningyearbyyear.Inaddition,duetotheimpactofthenewcrownepidemic,theEuropeaneconomyhasfallenintoadownturn,andthedemandsidehasremainedweak.Therefore,thepossibilityofdomesticstainlesssteelplantsgoingtoEuropetobuildfactoriesgenerallydoesnotexist.

　　3.FromtheperspectiveofChina'sopenfields,whatimpactdoesthe"China-EUInvestmentAgreement"haveondomesticstainlesssteelcompanies?

　　Duringthenegotiations,theareasthatChinapromisedtofurtheropenincludemanufacturing,automobiles,financialservices,healthcare,communications/cloudservices,computerservices,internationalshipping,airtransportation,businessservices,environmentalservices,etc.Atpresent,abouthalfofEU'sdirectinvestmentinChinaisconcentratedinthemanufacturingsector,suchastransportationandtelecommunicationsequipment,chemicals,healthequipment,andsoon.Intheautomotivesector,Chinaagreedtograduallycanceltherequirementsforjointventuresandpromisedmarketaccessfornewenergyvehicles.Inaddition,Chinaagreedtoabolishjointventurerequirementsforcertainindustriesinthefinancialservicesandhealthcaresectors.

　　FromthestandpointoftheEuropeanUnion,theEuropeanUnionhasnewopportunitiesinChina’sautomotive,consumerproducts,biomedicine,financialservices,andmedicalandhealthsectors,butmorelikelyitistheoutputinthetechnicalfield,whichhasabasicimpactontheproductionofthestainlesssteelindustry.No.

　　Insummary,ingeneral,the"China-EuropeInvestmentAgreement"doesnothaveanypositiveimpactonstainlesssteelandstainlesssteelcompaniesthemselves,butitmaybepositivefortheexportofstainlesssteelproducts.

　　中歐投資(zī)協定，對不鏽鋼行(hang)業影響幾何

　　2026年1月(yue)7日，中歐領導人共(gong)同宣布完成中歐(ou)全面投資協議(EU-ChinaComprehensiveAgreementonInvestment），這(zhe)是一個框架協議(yì)，旨在取代中國和(he)歐盟成員國現有(yǒu)的雙邊投資條♋約(yue)，構建統一的中歐(ōu)雙邊投資制度。

　　這(zhè)一談判經曆了35輪(lún)磋商，前後持續超(chao)過7年，談判曾❌一度(du)📱停滞，近一年半内(nèi)有所加快，終于在(zài)2020年年底完成談判(pàn)，這也是繼區域全(quán)面經濟夥伴關系(xi)協定（RCEP）之後，中國完(wán)成的🌍另一個重大(da)對外開放舉措，也(yě)是在多年的逆全(quán)球化進程中，多邊(biān)主義取得的又一(yi)次意義重大的勝(shèng)利。

　　那麼，“中歐投資(zi)協定”談判的完成(cheng)，對不鏽鋼行業會(huì)有影響嗎？

　　一、如果(guo)“中歐投資協定”達(da)成，歐盟對中國還(hái)會有關稅壁壘麼(me)？

　　近年來，由于歐盟(méng)對中國大陸的不(bu)鏽鋼出口持續的(de)反傾🍉銷♊，目前歐盟(meng)對中國大陸不鏽(xiu)鋼的征收稅率高(gao)達20%以上，那麼，如果(guǒ)“中歐投資協定”達(dá)成，歐盟對中國還(hái)會有關稅壁壘💔麼(me)？

　　首先需要明确的(de)是，“中歐投資協定(dìng)”并不涉及關稅問(wèn)題。其次，假🌈設“中歐(ou)投資協定”對不鏽(xiù)鋼出口有一定利(li)好，主要系不鏽鋼(gāng)的相關制成品，比(bi)如家電等等。但初(chū)步談判完成，協議(yì)需進🈲一步轉化成(chéng)法律條文，并經過(guò)歐洲議會批準後(hou)才可生效。該🐆過程(chéng)預計将在2021年下半(bàn)年才可開始。

　　二、從(cóng)歐洲開放領域來(lái)看，“中歐投資協定(ding)”對中國不鏽鋼企(qi)業走💯出去有何影(ying)響？

　　從相關資料顯(xiǎn)示來看，中歐投資(zi)協定将鎖定現有(yǒu)的中國對歐投資(zi)市場準入權，同時(shi)确保開放歐洲能(neng)源、農業、漁業、視聽(ting)、公共服務等敏感(gan)領域。此外，根據《服(fú)務貿易總協定》（GATS），歐(ōu)盟将在很大程度(dù)上開放服務行業(yè)。

　　站在中國立場，歐(ōu)洲開放領域，為中(zhōng)國投資者提供了(le)更大的進入歐盟(méng)能源批發零售市(shi)場、可再生能源市(shì)場等領域的機會(hui)，帶動中國新能源(yuan)、汽車等相🐪關産業(yè)的出口貿易發📱展(zhǎn)。對于中國投資者(zhě)，該協議達成還意(yì)💔味着在歐盟有更(geng)多潛在的投資機(jī)會，包🧡括中國有競(jing)❗争優勢的建築産(chan)業、電信産業等等(děng)，屆時或許會拉動(dong)國内不鏽鋼需求(qiu)。

　　但是從不鏽鋼企(qǐ)業角度而言，國内(nèi)不鏽鋼廠走出去(qù)在💁歐盟👨‍❤️‍👨建廠的可(kě)能性微乎其微。由(you)于歐洲的廢鋼積(ji)累量比較大，中㊙️國(guó)不鏽鋼鋼廠走出(chu)去投資建設，在不(bú)鏽鋼冶煉成本上(shàng)可能會享有一些(xie)優勢。但是目前歐(ōu)洲的不鏽🏃鋼鋼廠(chǎng)全部使用電爐生(sheng)産，若🤞去歐洲建廠(chǎng)🏃，整體成本過🧡于高(gao)昂。其次，從需求角(jiǎo)度♈來講，歐洲本🔴土(tǔ)不鏽鋼生産逐年(nian)下降，加之由于新(xin)冠疫情的影響，歐(ōu)洲經濟陷入低迷(mi)⭐，需求端維持弱勢(shì)🆚。因此，國内不鏽鋼(gāng)廠去歐洲建設工(gong)廠的可能性，總體(ti)而言不存在。

　　三、從(cong)中國開放領域來(lai)看，“中歐投資協定(ding)”對國内的不❓鏽⁉️鋼(gang)企業有何影響？

　　在(zai)談判中，中國答應(yīng)進一步開放的領(lǐng)域包括制造業、汽(qi)車、金融服務業、醫(yī)療健康、通訊/雲服(fu)務、計算機服務、國(guo)際海運、航空運輸(shu)、商業服務、環境服(fú)務等。目前，大約一(yī)半的歐盟對華直(zhí)接投資集中在制(zhì)造業領域，如運輸(shu)和電信設備、化學(xué)品、健康設備等等(deng)。而汽車領域方面(mian)，中國同意逐步取(qǔ)消合資企業要求(qiú)，承諾新能源汽車(chē)的市場準入。此外(wai)，中國同意取消金(jīn)融服務業及醫療(liao)健康領域中部分(fen)行業的合資要求(qiú)。

　　站在歐盟的立場(chang)，歐盟在中國的汽(qi)車、消費品、生物醫(yī)藥、金融服務和醫(yī)療衛生等衆多領(lǐng)域出現了新的機(jī)遇，但更多的可能(neng)是技術領域内的(de)輸出，對不鏽鋼行(háng)業生産的影響基(ji)本沒有。

　　綜上所述(shù)，總體而言，“中歐投(tóu)資協定”對不鏽鋼(gāng)及不鏽😘鋼企☎️業本(běn)身并沒有什麼利(lì)好的影響，但對不(bú)鏽鋼制成品的出(chū)🛀口可能會🈲是利好(hǎo)。